Bracketology 2017

We are finally playing meaningful basketball in February again.

Wake is currently projected squarely on the bubble.

Joe Lunardi has Wake as the last team in (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)

USA Today has Wake as one of the first four out (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/01/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness/97318338/)

We can use this thread to discuss Wake's tournament chances as the season progresses into the final stages, as well as take a look at other bubble teams.

A lot of action tonight for other bubble teams -

Indiana (14-8, 4-5, KP 40) vs. Penn State
Arkansas (16-5, 5-3, KP 52) vs. Alabama (13-7, 7-2, KP 60)
Georgia Tech (13-8, 5-4, KP 71) at Clemson (12-8, 2-6, KP 31)
Syracuse (13-9, 5-4, KP 55) at NC State (14-8, 3-6, KP 81)
VCU (16-5, 6-2, KP 45) vs. Richmond
Marquette (14-7, 5-4, KP 32) at St. John's
TCU (14-7, 3-5, KP 42) at Kansas State (15-6, 4-4, KP 27)
Miami (14-6, 4-4, KP 33) vs. Florida State
Virginia Tech (16-5, 5-4, KP 51) at Virginia
Texas Tech (15-6, 3-5, KP 41) at Texas
Illinois State (18-4, 10-0, KP 38) vs. Northern Iowa
Seton Hall (13-7, 3-5, KP 58) at Xavier (15-6, 5-3, KP 28)
SMU (18-4, 8-1, KP 19) vs. East Carolina
USC (18-4, 5-4, KP 59) at Washington

Clemson winning would be nice. They opened up as 8 point favorites and it went up to 10-11 pretty quickly.

Committee will ignore rpi and kenpom and leave us out since we are 0-6 against the top 50

deaconbd said:

Committee will ignore rpi and kenpom and leave us out since we are 0-6 against the top 50

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I get your point, but Miami is, and will be, a top 50 team.

Winners from last night -

Indiana (14-8, 4-5, KP 40) vs. Penn State - Indiana in triple OT. Hoosiers are likely in at this point.

Arkansas (16-5, 5-3, KP 52) vs. Alabama (13-7, 7-2, KP 60) - Arkansas wiped Bama. Hard to see the Tide make it in unless they upset Kentucky.

Georgia Tech (13-8, 5-4, KP 71) at Clemson (12-8, 2-6, KP 31) - Clemson by 12. Helps bring Georgia Tech back down to earth after beating Florida State and Notre Dame over the past week.

Syracuse (13-9, 5-4, KP 55) at NC State (14-8, 3-6, KP 81) - Syracuse in OT. Both are currently on the wrong side of the bubble.

VCU (16-5, 6-2, KP 45) vs. Richmond. VCU wins as expected. They are on the right side of the bubble.

Marquette (14-7, 5-4, KP 32) at St. John's - St. John's smoked Marquette. They have a tough back-half of Big East play facing Xavier twice, Butler, and Creighton.

TCU (14-7, 3-5, KP 42) at Kansas State (15-6, 4-4, KP 27) - TCU gets a nice road win. Both are squarely on the bubble.

Miami (14-6, 4-4, KP 33) vs. Florida State - Miami gets killed at home. They need to split their next two (@ NC State, vs. VaTech) to keep their hopes alive.

Virginia Tech (16-5, 5-4, KP 51) at Virginia - UVA wins by 23. Hokies will likely be underdogs in each of their next four games.

Texas Tech (15-6, 3-5, KP 41) at Texas - Texas Tech loses by 4. It doesn't necessary hurt their resume, but it certainly doesn't help.

Illinois State (18-4, 10-0, KP 38) vs. Northern Iowa - ISU by 6. For any chance of an at-large bid (if they don't win the MVC tournament) they'll need to win @ Wichita State on Saturday.

Seton Hall (13-7, 3-5, KP 58) at Xavier (15-6, 5-3, KP 28). Xavier by 2. Xavier is safely in the tournament right now, Seton Hall is on the outside looking in.

SMU (18-4, 8-1, KP 19) vs. East Carolina - SMU by 40. They're favored in each game the rest of the way.

USC (18-4, 5-4, KP 59) at Washington - USC gets a road win.

Not as many Thursday match-ups. A few mid-majors that need to win most every game in order to have an at-large chance if they don't win their conference tourney.

Michigan State (13-9, 5-4, KP 53) at Nebraska
Memphis (16-6, 6-3, KP 73) at South Florida
UNC Wilmington (20-3, 9-1, KP 55) vs. Charleston
Mid Tennessee State (19-3, 9-0, KP 46) at UT San Antonio
Utah (15-6, 6-3, KP 40) at California (15-6, 6-3, KP 58)

This is silly. We can't play defense. We are horribly coached in the last 2 minutes. We are not even close to being an NCAA tournament. We need to be discussing building our new 7k seat hoops shrine. We need to start winning again. Make Wake Forest basketball great again! ����

Donald or Doonald?

One... game... at... a... time....

Next up- GT. Just win baby! :dancindeac:

The Clemson, Cuse, and Duke loosses are such daggers. If we win won of those I'm feeling a lot better.

GT game is big this weekend.

If Wake ends up 8-10 in the ACC, that means going 4-4 over our last eight games, then getting into the Dance might hinge upon how Wake does in the ACC Tournament. I think that's the best probability right now. We gotta beat GT, NCState, @Clemson, and Pit to get the four wins. But it all starts with Saturday, take care of business boys.

You can dispute if we're going to make the tournament or not by arguing that we'll collapse down the stretch, but to say that we're not even close to being a tournament team right now is just flat out wrong.

WFUWaldo said:

I get your point, but Miami is, and will be, a top 50 team.

Click to expand...

In your next post you said they need to split their next two to keep their hopes alive. If they don't, then how is anyone going to let us in if they are our best win?

donaldross said:

This is silly. We can't play defense. We are horribly coached in the last 2 minutes. We are not even close to being an NCAA tournament. We need to be discussing building our new 7k seat hoops shrine. We need to start winning again. Make Wake Forest basketball great again! ����

Click to expand...

This is incorrect. If the season ended right now then we would either be one of the last teams in or the first teams out.

That, by definition, means we are "close" to being in the NCAA Tournament.

2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:

In your next post you said they need to split their next two to keep their hopes alive. If they don't, then how is anyone going to let us in if they are our best win?

Click to expand...

Because Miami will still be a top 50 team.

Also, as has been mentioned by several people over the past few weeks it's really just a matter of "what is the committee looking for." Is there any question that Wake is around the 35-40th best team in the country at this point? Doesn't really seem to be. We've beaten every team we were supposed to beat and lost to every team we were supposed to lose to. If you're a fan of playing to your rank as a system, then we're right around 35-40. Similarly, if you're interested in metrics we've been right around the 35-40 mark for the past month (haven't been above 34, where we are now, and haven't dropped below 44 since the start of the LSU game). This team is by all accounts a bubble team and it's going to be interesting to see how a team who wins every game they should and loses every game they should stacks up against a team who knocked off a couple top 25 teams but also lost to teams worse than 75-100th. Wake consistently plays to its rank. KenPom is 22-0 on predicting outcomes for the Deacs.

I also think a lot of folks could be ignoring our obvious improvement over the course of the season. Each game, we seem to play more controlled and are managing the tempo. Let us also not forget that we have one of, if not the best big man in the ACC currently playing like a monster.

It's easy to say that "we're not a tourney team" but there's a lot of basketball left to play, including the ACC tourney, and it's obvious that we are trending up and very capable on winning 4 or 5 more games.

If it comes down to one game to make the tournament, I think this team has proven that they will not be denied when it's all on the line!